The Epidemiology and Iatrogenic Transmission of Hepatitis C Virus in Egypt: A Bayesian Coalescent Approach

摘要: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver cancer and cirrhosis, Egypt has possibly the highest HCV prevalence worldwide. In this article we use newly developed Bayesian inference framework to estimate transmission dynamics in from sampled viral gene sequences, predict public health impact virus. Our results indicate that effective number infections underwent rapid exponential growth between 1930 1955. The timing speed spread provides quantitative genetic evidence Egyptian epidemic was initiated propagated by extensive antischistosomiasis injection campaigns. Although our show since decreased, conclude likely remain prevalent for several decades. combined population epidemiological analysis detailed estimates historical changes prevalence. Because are consistent with demographic scenario specified priori, they also provide an objective test methods based on coalescent process.