Attempts to Establish a Risk by Analogy

摘要: In this paper, we argue that risk in a new situation can be calculated by comparison with the most closely analogous previous find. many cases, such as automobile accidents, year is to preceding years. With toxic chemicals analogy less direct—we compare other or shown species. Because unreliability uncertainty of high, it necessary use sensitive, but more reliable, methods estimating prevent continued hazardous material, and subsequent tragedy if hazard should turn out unexpectedly large. This suggests robust techniques reduce regret, societal cost being wrong, because increased sensitivity sometimes attained at expense sampling error.