Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science

摘要: Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because complexity problems, relative lack data, imminent nature many decisions. substantive information on a particular topic that not known by others. An expert someone who holds this often deferred to its interpretation. We refer predictions experts what may happen context as judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists five steps: deciding how will be used, determining elicit, designing elicitation process, performing elicitation, translating elicited into quantitative statements can model or directly make This last step encoding. Some considerations eliciting include work with multiple combine judgments, minimizing bias information, verifying accuracy information. highlight structured techniques that, if adopted, improve content judgment ensure uncertainty captured accurately. suggest four aspects exercise examined determine comprehensiveness effectiveness: study design context, design, method, output. Just reliability empirical data depends rigor which it was acquired so too does knowledge.