Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems

摘要: Detailed interviews were conducted with 11 leading ecologists to obtainindividualqualitative and quantitative estimates of the likely impact a2 × [CO2] climate change onminimally disturbed forest ecosystems. Results display a much richer diversityof opinion thanis apparent in qualitative consensus summaries, such as those IPCC.Experts attachdifferent relative importance key factors processes soilnutrients, fire, CO2fertilization, competition, plant-pest-predator interactions. Assumptionsand uncertaintiesabout future fire regimes are particularly crucial. Despite these differences,most expertsbelieve that standing biomass minimally Northern forests wouldincrease soilcarbon would decrease. There is less agreement about impacts on carbon storagein tropicalforests. Estimates migration rates northern displayed rangeof more than fourorders magnitude. extinction dynamic response showsignificantvariation between experts. A series questions research needs foundconsensus theimportance expanding observational experimental work ecosystemprocesses ofexpanding regional larger-scale observational, monitoring modelingstudies. ofthe type reported here can be helpful performing sensitivity analysis inintegrated assessmentmodels, basis for focused discussions state currentunderstanding researchneeds, and, if repeated over time, measure progress inthis other fieldsof global research.