Decision analysis and behavioral research

作者: W. Edwards , D. Von Winterfeldt

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摘要: Decision analysis is a technology designed to help individuals and organizations make wise inferences decisions. It synthesises ideas from economics, statistics, psychology, operations research, other disciplines. A great deal of behavioural research relevant decision analysis; scientists have both suggested easy natural ways describe quantify problems shown the kind errors which unaided intuitive judgements can lead. This long-awaited book offers the4first integrative presentation principles in context. The authors break new ground on variety technical topics (sensitivity analysis, value-utility distinction, multistage inference, attitudes toward risk), attempt sense out what been treated literature as endemic biases human judgement. Those interested artificial intelligence will find it easiest hierarchical Bayesian inference available.

参考文章(11)
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L.D. Phillips, W.L. Hays, W. Edwards, Conservatism in Complex Probabilistic Inference IEEE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics. pp. 7- 18 ,(1966) , 10.1109/THFE.1966.231978
Ralph L. Keeney, Utility Independence and Preferences for Multiattributed Consequences Operations Research. ,vol. 19, pp. 875- 893 ,(1971) , 10.1287/OPRE.19.4.875
Ward Edwards, How to Use Multiattribute Utility Measurement for Social Decisionmaking IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics. ,vol. 7, pp. 326- 340 ,(1977) , 10.1109/TSMC.1977.4309720
Glenn R. Shafer, Daniel Kahnerman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Journal of the American Statistical Association. ,vol. 79, pp. 223- ,(1984) , 10.2307/2288362