摘要: Decision analysis is a technology designed to help individuals and organizations make wise inferences decisions. It synthesises ideas from economics, statistics, psychology, operations research, other disciplines. A great deal of behavioural research relevant decision analysis; scientists have both suggested easy natural ways describe quantify problems shown the kind errors which unaided intuitive judgements can lead. This long-awaited book offers the4first integrative presentation principles in context. The authors break new ground on variety technical topics (sensitivity analysis, value-utility distinction, multistage inference, attitudes toward risk), attempt sense out what been treated literature as endemic biases human judgement. Those interested artificial intelligence will find it easiest hierarchical Bayesian inference available.