Modelling the effectiveness and risks of vaccination strategies to control classical swine fever epidemics.

摘要: In a recent update of the Dutch contingency plan for controlling outbreaks classical swine fever (CSF), emergency vaccination is preferred to large-scale pre-emptive culling. This policy change raised two questions: can be as effective culling, and what are implications showing freedom infection? Here, we integrate quantitative information available on CSF virus transmission effects into stochastic mathematical model that describes dynamics at level animals, farms livestock areas. multilevel approach connects individual-level interventions effects. Using this model, compare performance five different control strategies applied hypothetical epidemics in The Netherlands and, each these strategies, study properties three screening scenarios show infection. We find ring 2 km radius around detected infection source culling 1 km radius. Feasible scenarios, adapted use vaccination, reduce enhanced risks (initially) undetected farm by targeting vaccinated farms. Altogether, our results suggest against equally safe