Understanding the Determinants of Structural Change in World Food Markets

摘要: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 80(December):1052-1062. This study assesses the interaction between climate change and agricultural trade policies. We distinguish two dimensions policy: market insulation and subsidy levels. Building on previous work Tsigas, Frisvold Kuhn (1997) we find that, in presence current levels subsidies, increased price transmission --as called for under Uruguay Round Agreement Agriculture-- reduces global welfare in wake change. This is due to positive correlation productivity changes support. Increases subsidized output tend to exacerbate inefficiencies economy absence insulation. However, once subsidies have also been eliminated, via global trading system contributes positively economic adaptation change. products. may partially explain relatively slow growth world grain import demand recent years. In addition, bilateral agreements with East Asia, NAFTA, evolution CAP, all had important impacts structure food trade. The objective this paper assess relative role each major forces-- consumer demand, factor accumulation, transport costs, policy change--in driving in the composition 1980-1995. To do so, employ a modified version the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model which permits us isolate the contribution these related factors changing a general equilibrium context. We evaluate by simulating backwards in time, from 1995 1980 different assumptions. general approach, termed “backcasting” (i.e. forecasting), takes as exogenous basic drivers attempts resulting composition. The model-produced are compared historical data, determine importance trade. Given limited space, our focus will be explaining agriculture A natural follow-on effort would target specific markets more detail. This type backcasting approach was first employed Gehlhar who sought to explain shift exports primary commodities manufactures Asia 1980's. He calibrated GTAP 1992 then implemented shocks endowments economywide total (TFP) order force back its 1982 population, land, labor, human capital, physical capital technology. By comparing actual and predicted export shares period, he found accumulation played key aggregate Asian exports. Gehlhar, Hertel Martin (1994) built an predict future pattern 1992-2002. They emphasized supply-side determinants trade. In paper, go beyond earlier number ways. First, the composition exports, rather than simply looking at share Secondly, incorporate Cranfield et al. estimates Rimmer Powell’s recently developed, implicitly directly additive (nicknamed AIDADS) into model. This better capture impact demand-side tr