A comparison between probabilistic and Dempster-Shafer theory approaches to model uncertainty analysis in the performance assessment of radioactive waste repositories.
作者： Piero Baraldi , Enrico Zio
DOI: 10.1111/J.1539-6924.2010.01416.X
关键词:
摘要: Model uncertainty is a primary source of in the assessment performance repositories for disposal nuclear wastes, due to complexity system and large spatial temporal scales involved. This work considers multiple assumptions on behavior corresponding alternative plausible modeling hypotheses. To characterize correctness different hypotheses, opinions experts are treated probabilistically or, alternative, by belief plausibility functions Dempster-Shafer theory. A comparison made with reference flow model evaluation hydraulic head distributions present at radioactive waste repository site. Three assumed available uncertainties associated hydrogeological properties groundwater mechanisms.
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