Climate change scenario planning: A model for the integration of science and management in environmental decision-making

摘要: This qualitative case study presents an in-depth evaluation of the scenario planning process, and exploration factors influencing its use as environmental decision making model. The authors explore how decision-makers scientists within National Park Service (NPS) used to negotiate social scientific uncertainty associated with climate change through lens systems innovation theory organizational resilience. Key modeling process included: (1) challenging assumptions, (2) bounding scenarios, (3) validating science (4) negotiating degree certainty about necessary for adaptive natural resource management. Ultimately, served more than a model; it encouraged exploratory dialogue critical uncertainties risks that NPS managers may face in era rapid change. It is such resilience nurtured innovations are adopted institutionalized adept agency response high risk changes effects on protected area's landscape.