Improving Communication of Uncertainty in the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

摘要: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assesses information relevant to the understanding of climate change and explores options for adaptation mitigation. IPCC reports communicate uncertainty by using a set probability terms accompanied global interpretational guidelines. judgment literature indicates that there are large differences in way people understand such phrases, their use may lead confusion errors communication. We conducted an experiment which subjects read sentences from 2007 report assigned numerical values terms. respondents' judgments deviated significantly guidelines, even when respondents had access these These results suggest method used is likely convey levels imprecision too high. propose alternative form communicating uncertainty, illustrate its effectiveness, several additional ways improve communication uncertainty.