A positive association between cryptosporidiosis notifications and ambient temperature, Victoria, Australia, 2001-2009.

摘要: Increased temperatures provide optimal conditions for pathogen survival, virulence and replication as well increased opportunities human-pathogen interaction. This paper examined the relationship between notifications of cryptosporidiosis temperature in metropolitan rural areas Victoria, Australia 2001 2009. A negative binomial regression model was used to analyse monthly average maximum minimum temperatures, rainfall count notifications. In area, a 1 °C increase current month associated with 22% (incident rate ratio (IRR) 1.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.31). temperature, lagged by 3 months, 9% decrease (IRR 0.91; CI 0.86-0.97). Rainfall not either area. These relationships should be considered when planning public health response ecological risks developing policies involving climate change. Rising ambient may an early warning signal intensifying prevention efforts, including appropriate education pool users about infection management, which might become more important are projected result