Sensitivity of stand dynamics to grazing in mixed Pinus sylvestris and Quercus pubescens forests: A modelling study

摘要: Abstract Only recently, studies of forest succession have started to include the effects browsing by wild or domestic ungulates. We aim contribute this topic analysing influence goat grazing on long-term coexistence Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) in low-elevation forests an inner-Alpine dry valley. The gap model ForClim was first adapted these site conditions examining site-dependent sensitivity with regard species-specific parameterisation drought tolerance as well light demand establishing adult trees. In a second step, behaviour investigated respect different intensities susceptibilities. last step application scenario based history, 150 years heavy (by goats) at beginning simulated succession, followed less intensive pressure. By comparing empirical data, it evident that underestimated basal area if without grazing. Introducing led more realistic, higher abundance model. Regeneration browsing-susceptible seriously suppressed during intense period, which occurrence Although after 400 reached nearly same historic grazing, delayed. suggests allows for much longer period codominance forests. changes successional pathways support view expressed other human impacts may alter substantially. Our results allow qualitative estimate, they make clear representation models needs be improved further.