Consequences of a Refuge for the Predator-Prey Dynamics of a Wolf-Elk System in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada

摘要: Refugia can affect predator-prey dynamics via movements between refuge and non-refuge areas. We examine the influence of a on population in large mammal system. Wolves (Canis lupus) have recolonized much their former range North America, as result, ungulate prey exploited refugia to reduce predation risk with unknown impacts wolf-prey dynamics. examined elk (Cervus elaphus) wolf Banff National Park. Elk occupy townsite little predation, whereas adjoining Bow Valley experience higher predation. The may through source-sink movements. To test this hypothesis, we used 26 years counts Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis Markov chain Monte Carlo method fit five models: 1) no movements, 2) density-dependent dispersal from non-refuge, 3) avoidance refuge, 4) differential movement rates 5) short-term, Model 1 provided best data, measured by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In top model, had median growth 0.08 0.03 (95% credibility intervals [CIs]: 0.027–0.186 0.001–0.143), respectively, carrying capacity 630 CI: 471.9–2676.9), encounter rate 0.02 0.013–0.030), wolves death 0.23 0.146–0.335) conversion efficiency 0.07 0.031–0.124). found evidence for potential influencing This result suggests that was isolated non-refuge.