Predicted climate-driven bird distribution changes and forecasted conservation conflicts in a neotropical savanna.

摘要: Climate-change scenarios project significant temperature changes for most of South America. We studied the potential impacts predicted climate-driven change on distribution and conservation 26 broad-range birds from America Cerrado biome (a savanna that also encompass tracts grasslands forests). used 12 or precipitation-related bioclimatic variables, nine niche modeling techniques, three general circulation models, two climate (for 2030, 2065, 2099) each species to model ranges. To reach a consensus scenario, we an ensemble-forecasting approach obtain average at time interval. estimated range extent shift species. Changes in size varied across according habitat dependency; future was negatively correlated with current all scenarios. Evolution under full null dispersal among 5% increase 80% decrease. The mean expected shifts full-dispersal were 175 200 km, respectively (range 15-399 km), usually toward southeastern Brazil. larger contractions longer forest- grassland-dependent than savanna-dependent birds. A negative correlation between loss revealed geographically restricted may face stronger threat become even rarer. southeasterly direction is cause concern because ranges are developed populated region Also, Brazil least likely contain corridors, allow expansion vegetation types, accommodate creation new reserves.