How Many Wolves (Canis lupus) Fit into Germany? The Role of Assumptions in Predictive Rule-Based Habitat Models for Habitat Generalists

摘要: Due to legislative protection, many species, including large carnivores, are currently recolonizing Europe. To address the impending human-wildlife conflicts in advance, predictive habitat models can be used determine potentially suitable and areas likely recolonized. As field data often limited, quantitative rule based or extrapolation of results from other studies techniques choice. Using wolf (Canis lupus) Germany as a model for generalists, we developed on location extent twelve existing home ranges Eastern Germany, current knowledge biology, different modeling various input analyze ten parameter sets following questions: (1) How do priori assumptions affect abundance distribution number packs Germany? (2) In synthesis across sets, what predicted most suitable? (3) Are pack consistent with biology relationships? Our indicate that depending which relationships applied chosen, amount estimated varies greatly. Depending assumptions, could accommodate between 154 1769 packs. The locations wolves able adapt densely populated by humans, but limited low road densities. analysis suggests maps general, should interpreted caution illustrates risk modelers concentrate only one selection factors technique.