Bluetongue Disease Risk Assessment Based on Observed and Projected Culicoides obsoletus spp. Vector Densities

摘要: Bluetongue is an arboviral disease of ruminants causing significant economic losses. Our risk assessment based on the epidemiological key parameter, basic reproduction number. It defined as number secondary cases caused by one primary case in a fully susceptible host population, which values greater than indicate possibility, i.e., risk, for major outbreak. In course virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) outbreak Europe 2006 we developed such University Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Austria. Basic numbers were calculated using well-known formula vector-borne diseases considering population densities hosts (cattle and small ruminants) vectors (biting midges Culicoides obsoletus spp.) well temperature dependent rates. The latter comprise biting mortality rate reciprocal extrinsic incubation period. Most important, but generally unknown, spatio-temporal distribution vector density. Therefore, established continuously operating daily monitoring to quantify seasonal cycle statistical model. We used cross-correlation maps Poisson regression describe environmental precipitation. results time series observed simulated spp. counts period 2009–2011. For projected our from location Vienna entire region compiled both numbers, respectively. above found between June August except mountainous regions Alps. highest coincide with locations confirmed BTV cases.