Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss

摘要: Current levels of endangerment and historical trends species habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past have been limited by lack appropriate data models. Given that much is about anticipating responding threats, our inability look forward at a global scale has major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess geography extent projected changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale suitability models parametrized according four scenarios human development. identified most affected countries 2050 each scenario, assuming no additional actions other those described take place. found that, some exceptions, largest predicted losses Africa Americas. African North American were also host large proportional declines. Most as hotspots mammal loss little or overlap priorities, thus confirming need forward-looking analyses priority setting. The expected growth populations consumption mean local such protected areas not be sufficient mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards root causes biodiversity loss, required, both parts world.