Understanding U.S. Biodiesel Industry Growth using System Dynamics Modeling

摘要: The production capacity of the biodiesel industry is experiencing exponential growth. Demand driven by environmental, social, and economic factors helped along government mandates incentives. Suppliers are having difficulty keeping up with demand. U.S. has grown a factor ten in past two years, between thirty forty new plants currently or near construction phase. Continued strong growth depends on producer/supplier profitability, which will be influenced several such as biomass oil feedstock prices, product/co-product technologies, regulations/incentives. How, why, to what extent these factors? To explore possible answers questions, we describe formulation system dynamics model marketplace. use this provide framework for understanding causal-loop/feedback structure how changes key variables (e.g. price change incentives) impact Using modeling, envision put into perspective behavior scenarios over next decade.