Exposure and vulnerability estimation for modelling flood losses to commercial assets in Europe.

摘要: Commercial assets comprise buildings, machinery and equipment, which are susceptible to floods. Existing damage models exposure estimation methods for this sector have limited transferability between flood events therefore potential pan-European applications. In study we introduce two methodologies aiming at improving commercial modelling: (1) disaggregation of economic statistics obtain detailed building-level estimates replacement costs assets; (2) a Bayesian Network (BN) model based primarily on post-disaster company surveys carried out in Germany. The BN is probabilistic provides probability distributions estimated losses, as such quantitative uncertainty information. shows good accuracy predictions building though overestimates machinery/equipment loss. To test its suitability modelling, the was applied three case studies, comprising coastal France (2010) fluvial floods Saxony (2013) Italy (2014). Overall difference modelled reported average loss per only 2-19% depending study. Additionally, achieved better results than six alternative those studies (except one Italian study). Further, our mostly resulted compared previously published data, tend overestimate exposure. All all, allow easy modelling losses whole Europe, since they applicable even if publicly-available datasets obtainable. achieve higher approaches, inherently provide confidence intervals, particularly valuable decision making under high uncertainty.