Projections of Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States: 1985-20251

摘要: Lung cancer has been the leading cause of death in United States for larger part this century. Increases smoking prevalence from 1900s through 1950s have resulted more than 100,000 deaths annually. Because changes during last three decades prevalence, decreasing tar content cigarettes, and increasing popularity low-tar trends lung are difficult to predict. This article presents an analysis data using age-period-cohort model projecting mortality year 2025. The projections based on initial parameterization prevention objectives related behavior established by National Cancer Institute. It is concluded that recent unlikely be affected cigarette composition consumption near term, but effectiveness anti-smoking campaigns can a considerable effect rates distant future.