Using Species Distribution Model to Estimate the Wintering Population Size of the Endangered Scaly-Sided Merganser in China

摘要: Scaly-sided Merganser is a globally endangered species restricted to eastern Asia. Estimating its population difficult and considerable gap exists between populations at breeding grounds wintering sites. In this study, we built distribution model (SDM) using Maxent with presence-only data predict the potential habitat for in China. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) method suggests high predictive power of (training testing AUC were 0.97 0.96 respectively). The most significant environmental variables included annual mean temperature, temperature coldest quarter, minimum month precipitation driest quarter. Suitable conditions are predicted middle lower reaches Yangtze River, especially Jiangxi, Hunan Hubei Provinces. suitable embraces 6,984 km river. Based on survey results from three consecutive winters (2010–2012) previous studies, estimated that entire China be 3,561 ± 478 individuals, which consistent estimate ground.