Planning for smallpox outbreaks
作者： Neil M Ferguson , Matt J Keeling , W John Edmunds , Raymond Gani , Bryan T Grenfell
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE02007
关键词:
摘要: Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release smallpox virus best means containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations knowledge, uncertainties need to be accurately communicated policy-makers. Smallpox poses particular challenge that key biological, social spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before eradication 1979. We review use planning within broader epidemiological context set recent outbreaks both novel re-emerging pathogens.
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