Exploring the future electric vehicle market and its impacts with an agent-based spatial integrated framework: A case study of Beijing, China

摘要: Abstract This paper investigates the potential expansion and impacts of Electric Vehicle (EV) market in Beijing, China at micro level with an agent-based integrated urban model (SelfSim-EV), considering interactions, feedbacks dynamics found complex system. Specifically, a calibrated validated SelfSim-EV Beijing was firstly used to simulate how EV might expand context evolution from 2016 2020, based on which environment, power grid system transportation infrastructures were assessed multiple resolutions. The results suggest that 1) adoption rate Battery (BEV) increases over period, whereas Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) almost remains same; Furthermore, so-called neighbour effects appear influence uptake BEVs, spatial analyses residential locations BEV owners; 2) could eventually benefit as evident slight decrease amounts HC, CO CO2 emissions after 2017; 3) Charging demand accounting for around 4% total electricity 2020 may put pressure system; 4) several EV-related transport facilities, including parking lots, refuelling stations, charging posts terms quantity, layout usage. These are expected be useful different stakeholders, such local authorities manufacturers, shape polices invest technologies EVs.