Quantifying Dispersal of Southern Pine Beetles with Mark-Recapture Experiments and a Diffusion Model.

摘要: Pest management decisions should take into consideration quantitative information on dispersal of insect pests, but such is often lacking. The goal this study was to measure intraforest in the southern pine beetle (SPB). We developed an analytical formula for interpreting data from mark-recapture studies dispersal. obtained by postulating a simple model diffusion with disappearance (e.g., as result death) spread marked insects release point. Parameters (assumed be invariant space) are estimated fitting curve cumulative number recaptured function distance release. also derived expression distribution distances terms fitted parameters. proposed methodology applied SPB Statistical analysis recaptures-with-distance curves 11 replicate releases indicated that provided accurate description data. There were no systematic departures functional relationship prescribed formula, and consistently outperformed another commonly used distances, exponential curve. explored effect spatial heterogeneity host movement regressing deviation recapture rate predicted each trap basal area around trap. This correlation significantly greater than zero, indicating beetles tended aggregate localities where pines dense. suggests spatially varying parameters may provide more redistribution process SPB. Quantitative results summarized calculatingradii circles enclosing given proportion distances. For example, we one half released dispersed >0.69 km. has important implications evaluating area-wide consequences current or novel control tactics rely disrupting movements, e.g., cut-and-leave treatments anti-congregation pheromone.