Contribution of spatially explicit models to climate change adaptation and mitigation plans for a priority forest habitat

摘要: Climate change will impact forest ecosystems, their biodiversity and the livelihoods they sustain. Several adaptation mitigation strategies to counteract climate impacts have been proposed for these ecosystems. However, effective implementation of such requires a clear understanding how influence future distribution This study uses maximum entropy modelling (MaxEnt) predict environmentally suitable areas cork oak (Quercus suber) woodlands, socio-economically important ecosystem protected by European Union Habitats Directive. Specifically, we use two scenarios changes in environmental suitability across entire geographical range where stands were recently established. Up 40 % current may be lost 2070, mainly northern Africa southern Iberian Peninsula. Almost 90 new are predicted lose end century, but plantations can take advantage increasing Peninsula France. The cross-country borders, showing that multinational strategy, required woodland change. Such strategy must regionally adjusted, featuring protection refugia sites stimulating sustainable management keep long-term suitability. Afforestation efforts should also promoted consider land competition issues.