Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

摘要: This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on implications near-term policies for costs and attainability long-term climate objectives. Nine teams participated in to explore consequences global emissions following proposed policy stringency national pledges from Copenhagen Accord Cancun Agreements 2030. Specific features compared earlier assessments are explicit consideration 2030 emission targets as well systematic sensitivity analysis availability potential mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a effort comparable would result further "lock-in" energy system into fossil fuels thus impede required transformation reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major include significant increases costs, increased risk become unattainable, reduced chances staying below temperature change target 2 °C case overshoot. With respect technologies, we find pledge pathways narrow choices, risks some currently optional such carbon capture storage (CCS) or large-scale deployment bioenergy, will "a must" by