Estimating acute mortality of Lepidoptera caused by the cultivation of insect-resistant Bt maize – The LepiX model

摘要: Abstract The cultivation of Bt maize, genetically modified to be resistant insect pests, has led intense scientific and political debate about its possible adverse impacts on biodiversity. To better address this question we developed an individual-based simulation model (LepiX). LepiX considers the temporal dynamics maize pollen shedding larval phenology, deposition host plants related distance from field, in order estimate mortality lepidopteran larvae exposed toxic pollen. We employed a refined exposure analysis, comparison previous approaches, using recent evidence leaf accounting for spatial heterogeneity leaves. Moreover, used stochastic approach, considering literature data minimum dataset butterfly biology combination with historic predict coincidence between phenology deposition. Since conservation management actions may act at level individual protected species, LepiX, as based spatially explicit model, is suited assist both risk assessment measures threshold mortalities. tested our Inachis io (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) species MON810 maize. In accordance predictions other models identified risks I. second generation. An analysis sensitivity input parameters stressed importance slope LC50 value dose-response curve well earliest day hatching. Using different published characterize revealed consequences due uncertainties ecotoxicological thus highlight key biological reliable estimates effects, decision making (e.g. isolation distances) assessment.