Modelling the Baltic power system till 2050
作者： Andra Blumberga , Dace Lauka , Aiga Barisa , Dagnija Blumberga
DOI: 10.1016/J.ENCONMAN.2015.09.005
关键词:
摘要: The European Union has given a long-term commitment towards low-carbon society. Power sector is to play an important role in achieving ambitious emission reduction goals. This article presents results of research aimed at evaluating development the Baltic power system under current framework conditions. Special focus put on renewable energy analysis estimate potential decarbonization. A dynamic energy-economy model was developed by applying dynamics modelling approach order evaluate changes till 2050. Underlying structure based resource flows according national electricity mix each State. calculates generation costs technology taking into account support schemes. Based cost estimation, installed capacity determined. Modelling suggest that wind become dominant region. explained increasing competitiveness wind-generated price compared fossil-fuel-based generation. Solar popular from 2025 onwards due decreasing investment costs. market share other technologies, such as hydro and biomass, will continue increase reaching maximum between 2020 2030. Biogas plants are still not expected considerable
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