Conditions for caribou persistence in the wolf-elk-caribou systems of the Canadian Rockies

摘要: Woodland caribou populations are considered threatened in Alberta and have declined the Canadian Rocky Mountain National Parks of Banff Jasper despite protection from factors causing to decline outside parks. Recent research emphasizes importance numeric response wolves moose moose-caribou-wolf systems persistence. Moose rare Rockies, where dominant ungulate prey for is elk. Few studies explored wolf-elk dynamics none examined implications caribou. We used data collected estimate elk 1985 2005. Because no kill-rate exist we explore consequences a range hypothetical kill-rates based on alternate 2000 Banff. then multiplied by estimated wolf predation as function density. Caribou rates were inversely density dependent because numbers depend species besides multiple systems. combined this simple wolf-elk-caribou model with observed demographic population estimates 2003-2004 solved critical thresholds above which would decline. Using these thresholds, likely persist when densities below 2.1 - 4.3 wolves/1000km2 and/or 0.015- 0.033 elk/km2. Thresholds persistence much lower inverse dependence. Future needed some necessary assumptions underlying our modeling including multi-prey responses, caribou, mortality other predators, spatial aspects dynamics.