A Modelling Perspective on Probability

摘要: In this chapter, we argue for three interconnected ways of thinking about probability—“true” probability, model and empirical probability—and attention to notions “good”, “poor” “no” model. We illustrate these from the simple situation throwing a die more complex modelling bed numbers in an intensive care unit, which applied probabilists might consider. then propose reference framework purpose teaching learning probability perspective demonstrate with examples underpinning framework. Against analyse theory-driven data-driven approach used by two research groups education field. The implications our analysis groups’ are discussed.