Influencing Mechanism Analysis of Holiday Activity–Travel Patterns on Transportation Energy Consumption and Emissions in China

摘要: Energy shortage and atmospheric pollution problems are getting more serious in China, transportation is the main source of energy consumption, pollutants, carbon emissions. This study combined activity-based analysis method with emission models, investigated influence mechanism people’s activity travel scheduling on consumption emissions holidays. Based holiday behavior survey data, multinomial logistic regression model was first applied to explore decision mechanisms individual travel-mode choices Next, integrated an demand calculate compare under different policy scenarios. The results showed that socio-demographic characteristics had significant effects activity–travel patterns, mode chains a larger number points than single chains. With increase trip time cars, decrease distance points, could be reduced greatly adjustment patterns. portion mainly attracted by slow traffic public transport. However, strategy very limited, thus portfolio policies need considered makers.