Age-Period-Cohort Models in Cancer Surveillance Research: Ready for Prime Time?

摘要: Standard descriptive methods for the analysis of cancer surveillance data include canonical plots based on lexis diagram, directly age-standardized rates (ASR), estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort (APC) model has been used less often. Here, we argue that it merits much broader use. First, describe close connections between estimable functions parameters standard quantities such as ASR, EAPC, joinpoints. Estimable have added value being fully adjusted period cohort effects, generally more precise. Second, APC provides epidemiologist with powerful new tools, including rigorous statistical comparative analyses, ability to project future burden cancer. We illustrate these principles by using invasive female breast incidence in United States, but concepts apply equally well other sites or mortality.