Population dynamics and management of Sus scrofa in western Switzerland: a statistical modelling approach

摘要: In Western Switzerland as in other parts of Europe, the high densities Sus scrofa have serious economic consequences for agriculture. order to improve management actions and reduce impacts, we undertaken a time series analysis on factors that may explain increasing abundance wild boars made stochastic simulations population dynamics assess impact by hunting. Over 32 years period, show expansion maize cultures explains 49.7% variance numbers annually shot is thus one main controlling growth. Since amounts taken hunting can be shown proportional boar populations, use data furnished hunters calculate survival rates fecundities three age classes (0-1 year, 1-2 years, > 2 years) simulate using RAMAS/age model structured populations. Density dependence parameters are also estimated from data. The produces fairly realistic predictions used compare harvesting strategies. statistical modelling approach presented this paper limited quality parameter estimation, and, case model, its strong sensitivity variations density parameters. However, qualitative risk assessments made, providing averyuseful tool improvement Wild management.