MJO-Related Tropical Convection Anomalies Lead to More Accurate Stratospheric Vortex Variability in Subseasonal Forecast Models.

摘要: The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex in period preceding sudden warmings is evaluated operational subseasonal forecasting models. Reforecasts which simulate stronger MJO-related convection Tropical West Pacific also enhanced heat flux lowermost stratosphere and a more realistic evolution. time scale predictability lies between 2 4 weeks for nearly all cases. Those that were preceded by strong MJO event are predictable at ∼20 day leads than not event. Hence, knowledge can contribute to predictability, least probabilistic sense, stratosphere.