Environmental ecological modeling of human blood lead levels in East Asia.

摘要: Environmental ecological modeling (EEM), which unifies models simulating transport of chemicals and exposure humans to chemicals, was used simulate long-term trends female adult human blood lead levels (BLLs) historical the atmospheric in four East Asian countries: Japan, Korea, China, Vietnam. Anthropogenic emissions atmosphere Vietnam were estimated from energy statistics be 1931 t yr(-1). Calculated BLLs generally agreed with those observed samples collected these countries as error factors less than 2. The model results revealed that decreased significantly Tokyo (by 58%) Seoul 45%) recent decades confirmed effects efforts reduce environmental Japan Korea. also Beijing did not decrease this decade much Seoul, despite phasing out leaded gasoline, contribution component increasing (43% 2009). Finally, we applied EEM children Hanoi. probability having greater 50 μg L(-1) 7.5%, developed countries.