Future forest aboveground carbon dynamics in the central United States: the importance of forest demographic processes.

摘要: The Central Hardwood Forest (CHF) in the United States is currently a major carbon sink, there are uncertainties how long current sink will persist and if CHF eventually become source. We used multi-model ensemble to investigate aboveground density of from 2010 2300 under climate. Simulations were done using one representative model for each simple, intermediate, complex demographic approaches (ED2, LANDIS PRO, LINKAGES, respectively). All agreed that would at least 2100. However, dynamics after diminishes zero differ different modelling approaches. Both simple predicted prolonged periods relatively stable densities 2100, with minor declines, until end simulations 2300. In contrast, intermediate approach source between 2110 2260, followed by another period. disagreement these patterns can be partly explained differences capacity models simulate gross growth (both birth subsequent growth) mortality short-lived, shade-intolerant tree species.