Improbable outcomes: Infrequent or extraordinary?

摘要: Abstract Research on verbal probabilities has shown that unlikely or improbable events are believed to correspond numerical probability values between 10% and 30%. However, building a pragmatic approach of new methodology, the present paper shows outcomes most often associated with have 0% frequency occurrence. Five studies provide evidence when people complete evaluate statements describing “improbable” outcomes, based outcome distributions expected ranges, they favor extraordinary not occurred in original sample. For quantitative can be ordered unipolar dimension, an is typically perceived as having higher value than those observed. Thus battery life for sample laptop batteries range from 2.5 4.5 h, 5 6 h considered better examples duration times actually occur cases. Similarly, exam grade one yet been observed, rather obtained by small percentage students. And climate experts claim 100 cm increase sea level year 2100 “improbable”, participants believe same experts’ maximum estimates will much lower. We conclude judgments what suggest beyond range, simply low outcomes. These results compatible causal (propensity) interpretation statistical (frequency) probabilities.