The 2014 oil bust: Causes and consequences

摘要: Abstract This article suggests that the 2014 oil price collapse was possibly triggered by falling Euro versus US Dollar. Specifically, USD/EUR exchange rate likely adjusted to sudden economic growth outlook divergence between and EU, as evident relative short term interest spread measures, a “strong dollar” trade, which is negative for crude prices. Thus, in our view, bust another episode of inefficiency, similar 2008 bubble. The key argument presented this that, long there are temporary divergences resulting volatility create pricing inefficiencies oil, fact mean-reverting, eventually dissipate.