Global Malaria Mortality Between 1980 and 2010: A Systematic Analysis

摘要: Summary Background During the past decade, renewed global and national efforts to combat malaria have led ambitious goals. We aimed provide an accurate assessment of levels time trends in mortality aid progress towards these goals focusing future efforts. Methods systematically collected all available data for period 1980–2010, correcting misclassification bias. developed a range predictive models, including ensemble estimate with uncertainty by age, sex, country, year. used key predictors such as Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence, first-line antimalarial drug resistance, vector control. out-of-sample validity select final model. Findings Global deaths increased from 995 000 (95% interval 711 000–1 412 000) 1980 peak 1 817 000 (1 430 000–2 366 000) 2004, decreasing 1 238 000 (929 000–1 685 000) 2010. In Africa, 493 000 (290 000–747 000) 1 613 000 (1 243 000–2 145 000) about 30% 1 133 000 (848 000–1 591 000) Outside steadily decreased 502 000 (322 000–833 000) 104 000 (45 000–191 000) estimated more individuals aged 5 years or older than has been previous studies: 435 000 (307 000–658 000) Africa 89 000 (33 000–177 000) outside Interpretation Our findings show that burden is larger previously estimated, especially adults. There rapid decrease because scaling up control activities supported international donors. Donor support, however, needs be if elimination eradication broader health development are met. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.