Linking Models of Land Use, Resources, and Economy to Simulate the Development of Mountain Regions (ALPSCAPE)

摘要: We present a framework of scenario-based model that simulates the development municipality Davos (Swiss Alps). illustrate our method with calculation scenario for 2050 ''Decrease in subsidies mountain agriculture and liberalization markets.'' The main objective was to link submodels land-use allocation (regression-based approach), material en- ergy flows (Material Energy Flux Analysis), economic (Input-Output Analysis). Letting qualitative quantitative information flow from one submodel next, following storyline describing scenario, has proven be suitable linking submodels. succession is then strongly dependent on scenario. Qualitative are simu- lated microsimulations actor choices. Links be- tween show different degrees robustness: although links involving weakest, uncertainty introduced by allo- cation actually advantageous because it allows possible change landscape future simulated. modeling results here presented disappearance only marginally affects region's factor income, but consequences self-sufficiency rate, various landscape-related indicators ecosystem services, economy long term may considerable. These benefits compensate agriculture's modest direct value. can potentially applied any region This provides basis learning package potential detrimental regional anticipated at an early stage.