Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data

摘要: While large carnivores are recovering in Europe, assessing their distributions can help to predict and mitigate conflicts with human activities. Modeling presents several challenges due i) imperfect detectability, ii) dynamic ranges over time iii) monitoring at scales consisting mainly of opportunistic data without a formal measure the sampling effort. Not accounting for these issues lead flawed inference about distribution. Here, we focused on wolf (Canis lupus) that has been recolonizing France since early 90s. We evaluated effort posteriori as number observers present per year cell based location professional then assessed range dynamics from 1993 2014, while species detection time- space-varying using site-occupancy models. Ignoring effect detectability led underestimating occupied sites by 50% average. Colonization increased increasing short long-distances, well forest cover, farmland cover mean altitude. decreased when high-altitude increased. The growth rate, defined newly given divided previous year, time, 100% 1994 5% 2014. This suggests wolves expanding but rate is slowing down. Our work shows be analyzed distribution models control detection, pending quantification approach potential being used decision-makers target where likely occur conflicts.