Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data

摘要: While large carnivores are recovering in Europe, assessing their distributions can help to predict and mitigate conflicts with human activities. Because they highly mobile, elusive live at very low density, modeling presents several challenges due i) imperfect detectability, ii) dynamic ranges over time iii) monitoring scales consisting mainly of opportunistic data without a formal measure the sampling effort. Here, we focused on wolves (Canis lupus) that have been recolonizing France since early 90’s. We evaluated effort posteriori as number observers present per year cell based location professional then assessed wolf range dynamics from 1994 2016, while accounting for species detection time- space-varying using site-occupancy models. Ignoring effect detectability led underestimating occupied sites by more than 50% average. Colonization appeared be negatively influenced proportion site an altitude higher 2500m positively observed short long-distances, forest cover, farmland cover mean altitude. The expansion rate, defined given divided previous year, decreased first years study, remained stable 2000 2016. Our work shows analyzed distribution models control detection, pending quantification effort. approach has potential being used decision-makers target where likely occur conflicts. This article is protected copyright. All rights reserved.