Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

摘要: The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and systems it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic characterized by multiple sources uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, planners increasingly turning tools analysis, especially optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, then explore its capacity coping various degrees In broadest terms, problem in choosing among set options at periodic intervals so as maximize some objective over planning horizon. Planners must account immediate returns, well effect current decisions future resource conditions and, thus, decisions. Undermining such process uncertainties concerning extant (partial observability), consequences choices controllability), outcomes uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), processes structuring dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where from uncertainty can be described terms probability distributions, focus maximizing expected return, while taking state-specific actions, an effective mechanism When distributions unavailable or deemed unreliable, robustness likely preferred approach. idea choose action (or state-dependent policy) achieves least minimum level performance regardless (uncertain) outcomes. We examples how framed problems involving management habitat imperiled species, critically endangered population through captive breeding, control invasive construction biodiversity reserves, design landscapes increase connectivity, exploitation. Although making their solutions present significant suggest systematic approach need not onerous undertaking. requirements shared any making?a careful consideration values,