The development of a clinically useful tool for predicting the development of psychological disorder following injury.

摘要: Objectives To identify factors significantly associated with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression at 3 months post-injury; to develop a generic model predict the occurrence of PTSD, validate this in test data set patients. Design Prospective cohort study. Methods Participants were 823 patients attending an emergency department (ED) following accidental injury. Baseline questionnaires completed, 1 postal follow-ups. Predictor variables demonstrating significant associations two three outcome measures (3-month HAD anxiety scores PTSD symptoms) included multivariate regression models for each outcome. Non-significant predictor removed until all remaining independent made most contribution models. Models validated using dataset. Results Previous history mental health problems, neuroticism score having symptoms month predicted adverse outcomes months. When used on datasets, areas under receiver operating curve (ROC) predicting were: PTSD=0.91 (sensitivity=88.5%); anxiety=0.87 (sensitivity=93.7%); depression=0.87 (sensitivity=96.7%). Conclusions The final performed moderately well across may be useful clinically as rule-out tool those who will not require follow up, watchful waiting or intervention.