Evaluating the cumulative impacts of a long range regional transportation plan: Particulate matter exposure, greenhouse gas emissions, and transportation system performance

摘要: Abstract Long range regional transportation plans (LRTPs) are typically evaluated with performance measures calculated for the first and final years of planning period. We call this endpoint modeling method. Planning periods span 20–30 or more years, therefore method can overlook important changes that occur during interim as well cumulative impacts. For example, impact GHG emissions accumulating in atmosphere chronic deadly diseases caused by exposure to high concentrations toxic vehicle cannot be reversed only perform distant future. In study we evaluate annual a LRTP created Albuquerque, New Mexico metropolitan area over 28-year period land-use, travel demand, using an incremental highly integrated land-use demand find non-linear sometimes complex emission rates, pollution other measures, indicating end metrics may not robust indicators average overall plan performance, which argue considerations. Furthermore, has large effect on traffic forecasts. By plan’s year, forecasts greater population employment, correspondingly congestion air pollutant region’s largest activity centers than method, is used most MPOs.