Dynamic and consequential consistency of choices between paths of decision trees.
作者： Jerome R. Busemeyer , Rachel Barkan , Zhengping Ma , Xuyang Li , Ethan Weg
DOI: 10.1037//0096-3445.129.4.530
关键词: Backward induction 、 Operations research 、 Psychology 、 Conjunction (grammar) 、 Decision tree 、 Attractiveness 、 Consistency (negotiation) 、 Social psychology 、 Decision analysis 、 Test (assessment) 、 Tree (data structure)
摘要: The generally prescribed procedure for choosing a decision strategy from tree employs backward induction analysis that entails 3 fundamental consistency principles: dynamic, consequential, and strategic. first requires the maker to follow through on plans end, second focus solely future events final consequences given current state of events, third is conjunction 2. Five experiments were reported test these principles using different subject populations, procedures estimating consistency, factors manipulating attractiveness gamble at stage tree. main findings strategic dynamic violated rates exceeded choice inconsistency.
philpapers.org
researchgate.net 
sci-hub.st 参考文章(43)
Chizuko Izawa, Current Issues in Cognitive Processes : The Tulane Flowerree Symposia on Cognition ,(1989)
R. Duncan Luce, Utility of Gains and Losses: Measurement-Theoretical and Experimental Approaches ,(2000)
J.G.W. Raaijmakers, J.H. Kerstholt, Decision making in dynamic task environments Decision Making: Cognitive Models and Explanations. pp. 205- 217 ,(1997)
Amnon Rapoport, Research Paradigms for Studying Dynamic Decision Behavior Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making. pp. 349- 369 ,(1975) , 10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_22
Decision making : cognitive models and explanations Routledge. ,(1997) , 10.4324/9780203444399
W. Edwards, D. Von Winterfeldt, Decision analysis and behavioral research Cambridge, MA (USA) Cambridge Univ. Press. ,(1986)
Milton C. Weinstein, Clinical Decision Analysis ,(1980)
Mark J Machina, Dynamic Consistency and Non-expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty Journal of Economic Literature. ,vol. 27, pp. 1622- 1668 ,(1989)
William M. Goldstein, Elke U. Weber, Content and Discontent: Indications and Implications of Domain Specificity in Preferential Decision Making Psychology of Learning and Motivation. ,vol. 32, pp. 83- 136 ,(1995) , 10.1016/S0079-7421(08)60308-4
Lola L. Lopes, Between Hope and Fear: The Psychology of Risk Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. ,vol. 20, pp. 255- 295 ,(1987) , 10.1016/S0065-2601(08)60416-5