Uncertainty in rainfall—runoff model simulations and the implications for predicting the hydrologic effects of land-use change

摘要: Abstract This paper quantifies the levels of uncertainty in rainfall—runoff model predictions due to errors hydrological and climatic data, considers implications for prediction hydrologic effect land-use changes. In this study, a model, Monash was calibrated on one catchment from each at five experimental areas Victoria, Australia. The validity optimised parameters first examined by comparing them with independent estimates. Using posterior distribution pan coefficient parameter estimates, determined 90% limits obtained Monte-Carlo simulation. effects systematic inputs (rainfall evaporation) runoff were also investigated. analysis showed that rainfall have most serious predicted flows, but estimation (random) significant effects. With level background ‘noise’, up 65% forest area would be cleared produce flow increases detectable level, depending type question.