Confronting Uncertainty in Wildlife Management: Performance of Grizzly Bear Management

作者: Kyle A. Artelle , Sean C. Anderson , Andrew B. Cooper , Paul C. Paquet , John D. Reynolds

DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0078041

关键词: Wildlife managementMortality rateEnvironmental scienceActuarial scienceManagement systemScientific managementGrizzly BearsExcess mortalityUrsus arctos horribilisWildlifeEnvironmental protectionGeneral Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular BiologyGeneral Agricultural and Biological SciencesGeneral Medicine

摘要: Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas importance considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies effects unaddressed on real systems have rare. We examined outcome components biological hunt performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in British Columbia, Canada. found that both forms can serious impacts performance. Outcome alone – discrepancy between expected realized mortality levels led to excess 19% cases (population-years) examined. Accounting for around estimated parameters (i.e., uncertainty) revealed might occurred up 70% cases. offer general method identifying targets exploited species incorporates maintains probability exceeding limits below specified thresholds. Setting our focal system using this at thresholds 25% 5% overmortality would require average target reductions 47% 81%, respectively. Application transparent generalizable framework or other could improve performance presence uncertainty.

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