Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms.

摘要: This study investigated the pathways of exposure to low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus among Australian commercial chicken farms, and estimated likelihood this occurring using scenario trees a stochastic modelling approach following World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) methodology risk assessment. Input values models were sourced from scientific literature an on-farm survey conducted during 2015 2016 farms located in New South Wales (NSW) Queensland. Outputs revealed that probability LPAI first domestic one wild bird at any point time is extremely low. Across five farm types (non-free range meat chicken, free cage layer, barn layer farms), had highest (7.5 x 10-4; 5% 95%, 5.7 10-4 – 0.001). The results indicate presence large number birds on required occur across all types. median direct was (5.6 1.6 respectively) indirect non-free (2.7 10-4, 2.0 1.9 respectively). found be lowest summer Sensitivity analysis proportion waterfowl farm, feed storage areas, prevalence are most influential parameters being exposed AI virus. These highlight importance ensuring good biosecurity minimise virus, continuous surveillance including subtypes populations.