Dynamical simulation of Indian summer monsoon circulation, rainfall and its interannual variability using a high resolution atmospheric general circulation model

摘要: This paper discusses the simulations of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using a high-resolution National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) T170/L42 model 20-year period (1985–2004) with observed Sea Surface Temperature (SSTs) as boundary conditions and five initial in first week May. Good agreement is found between simulated climatologies. Interannual variability (IAV) ISM rainfall individual ensemble members provided by average shows that two series are to agree well; however, simulation actual year-to-year poor. The do not show much skill drought excess seasons. One aspect which has emerged from study where dynamical seasonal prediction specific base large areal temporal averages, technique be stretched application on short scale such cluster few grid point. Monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK) coast India advance northwest discussed based member basis. It suggested capable realistically simulating these processes, particularly if used, intermember spread large. In short, appears provide better climatology its magnitude IAV, compares favourably observations, although matching seasonal/monthly totals whole good. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society